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Industry |

Studios Brace for Another Quarter of Contraction

After a year of strikes and soft box office returns, major LA lots are quietly preparing for a 15% reduction in greenlit projects.

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Sarah Jenkins

Staff Writer

The post-strike recovery that Hollywood desperately needed hasn't materialized. As major studios close their books for Q3, the mood across the lots is grim. Internal projections obtained by the Journal of LA indicate a planned 15% year-over-year reduction in greenlit projects across theatrical and streaming divisions for the first half of 2025.

The Streaming Math Finally Catches Up

For years, Wall Street rewarded pure subscriber growth, allowing platforms to deficit-spend billions on "Peak TV." That era is decisively over. The new mandate is profitability, which means fewer shows, tighter budgets, and a return to safer bets.

"We are in the 'Great Rationalization,'" a senior executive at a major streamer told the Journal under condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy. "We looked at the data and realized we were spending $150 million on shows that generated almost zero churn-reduction. That money is gone and it's not coming back."

The Talent Agency Squeeze

This contraction is sending shockwaves down Wilshire Boulevard. With fewer shows being bought, and overall deals (deals where creators are paid simply to develop exclusively for a studio) being quietly allowed to expire, the major agencies are feeling the pinch.

Consolidation Looms

As valuations remain depressed, M&A chatter is heating up again. Paramount's ongoing strategic review and Warner Bros. Discovery's debt load make them obvious focal points, but independent production companies are also seeking shelter. We expect to see significant roll-ups of mid-sized production outfits in Q1 2025 as the reality of the smaller market sets in.

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